Take aways from the winter version against the averages of a cat 5 hurricane


I called this outbreak that last week, as far as winter events in a given area, as extreme as a cat 5 hurricane is to hurricane season. And I venture to say, though different, economic totals and hardship will be comparable. I am praying the loss of life due to exposure, etc, does not reach what a category 5 hurricane can do.The most recent landfalling cat 5 hurricane, Michael killed 16. Andrew killed 65, Camille killed 259, Labor Day hurricane 1935 485

More people lost power in this outbreak than any other weather event than Hurricane Irma in 2017.

I can go on and on, but its flogging a dead horse.

But what can we take away from this?

1) First of all, in regards to the federal government, and I am talking people in power in the administration made no discernable effort before to act on it. I am sure there were GREAT FORECASTERS IN NOAA that started picking up on this, but unlike President Trump before hurricanes when he was told big problems were on the way, there was no visible response to work with the states. I will talk more about that later. It is not NOAA or President Biden I am talking about here. Someone in the administration should have had the presidents back.

2) Wind power is no more than a supplement to the energy situation, just like for instance, glutamine is a bodybuilding supplement. It can never be main diet

The next 4 are items are my book. I have chapters that address what the left is up too. and wrote this without even knowing anyone from the left would be in office:

3). Pointing out its warm in other places and distorting it with terms like “Overheating”

4) Blaming the cold on warming.

5) Blaming the cold on global weirding which is nonsense

6) Nature, not man, rules the planet

As to number 1. Lest you think I am talking after the fact, here is what we were telling our clients last week

“. I cannot overstate what is going to occur in Texas, and in talking with various people in the industry, plus other sources, if this is right, it appears that people may not understand what can happen here (shutting down of refineries, power outages, ecological disruption, and agricultural damage, etc.)

I tried very hard to get the message out. Fact is some media appearances were canceled because of the impeachment situation. To show you how clueless people running that were, we could have delayed it and focused what was going on with this. But instead it became an agenda driven obsession, A very sad example of what is going on today.

I would put down my climate sword in any given extreme weather situation to get people ready, no matter who the president is, if asked to help. I said that in a previous blog, and I mean it. That’s how I was raised. And I know many great people in NOAA and they are not at fault. It had to be the obsession with the political theatre and no one willing to talk to the president. Say what you want about President Biden, he needs someone to be in his ear on matters like this. Quite frankly it would have been good politics given the stated goal of the left of turning Texas blue. As it is, it was only the Texas government and getting out in front as best they could Friday that averted even more of a disaster. Governor Abbot became very pro-active. But what can you do when supplies needed (snowfighting equipment, salt, power generators etc). are not even considered? But someone should have advised the president on this. If they did, I saw no evidence of response.

But now I pick that climate sword up

Like clockwork, and this verifies another forecast I made on this matter, about the same people that ignored it completely starting with this kind of blame climate change nonsense, look what is showing up.

Take aways from the winter version against the averages of a cat 5 hurricaneThis is classic and my book is a primer on counters to this and other aspects I will discuss below.

2) Wind/solar power. I look at alternative energy as supplemental to the economic lifeline of the nation which is fossil fuels. I think it is like the supplement glutamine I take. I use it for immune system boosting and for my training. It is something I use every day, but it is not, nor will it ever be my main diet. One does not force feed a diet supplement down somebody’s throat. Which is what is going on here. Fossil fuels are the main diet, the other things are supplements that can aid that diet. But unless you are purposely trying to destroy the economy of the country, or you are so agenda driven you do not see this, you are overzealous in your desire to convince people this is where to go. It does me no good business wise to oppose wind and solar and letting a wind and solar company know the weather in the long range and at the point of operation (the day of) is a first derivative profit center for a meteorologist, unlike fossil fuels, which unless a refinery is shut down or an oil rig off- line, cares more about total consumption in the longer term. One the day of the weather, its over as far as forecasting. So I am not against solar or wind and love the chance to forecast for them. But going back to the bodybuilding analogy, its like telling someone to squat 600 lbs and it will make them strong, when they can’t even squat 100 lbs yet. We are just not capable of using wind and solar and the debacle that just occurred was well telegraphed. Having 15-20% of the Texas energy need rely on this, and then having this kind of demand over a 5 day period shows in no uncertain terms what can happen. The cold was the cause no doubt, but it exposed the serious hardships that reliance on an incomplete source can lead too.

3). Pointing out its warm in other places and distorting it with terms like “Overheating”

I was sent this tweet by my daughter and it shows one of the strategies of weaponization:

Take aways from the winter version against the averages of a cat 5 hurricane 1

This is absurd. Overheating? Overall, the day was near the 30 year mean for one and for two, the cold and warm are almost in perfect balance. There are always areas colder and warmer than average. Average and normal are not the same thing. The average is a product of variance and some wide swings are factored in. In fact, it is more likely that a day is above or below average than at the average. SO IT IS NORMAL TO HAVE LARGE AREAS AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER!! THAT IS NORMAL! My chapter on what the global temperature means and what drives that reading exposes the weaponizing of it. The fact is where most life thrives the increase in temperatures over a 30 year period is undetectable to the average human and well within adaptation. The lion’s share of the warming is where its coldest and driest and that is a direct function of increase water vapor due to the cyclical warming of the oceans which have a myriad of causes, one of the least, co2 increase. There is a chapter dealing about this kind of propaganda (In fact its called the Weaponization of the Global temperature). But using terms like “overheating” and hottest ever is propaganda meant to evoke an emotional, not rational response for those not digging in beyond what they are told. The media is either gullible or accomplice on this as they simply march to what they are told.

4) Blaming the cold on warming

This is nonsense since there have been times when we see the arctic warm. When it occurs in the upper levels, it is what we call “blocking” and the cold pours into the United States and Europe as a balance. The warming is relative. When the jet stream buckles, air from the arctic can get into the US faster. 10 above normal in the arctic delivered quickly into the US will be way below normal in the US when it arrives. Warming occurs in the upper levels and when the stratospheric warming event started in late December, we warned our clients a huge flip in the US winter was coming, The expansion of the stratosphere leads to a reduction of the thickness of the troposphere under it, meaning high pressure builds over the arctic and across Canada. Like opening a refrigerator door, air flows from colder sources with higher pressure toward naturally lower pressures further south. This was textbook, and something we were preparing clients for from early winter when it was warm. The maximum displacement over the pole occurred in mid Jan and you punch the clock then. If you know that is coming from late December, you warn people. So the 30 days ending Jan 15 looked like this:

Take aways from the winter version against the averages of a cat 5 hurricane 2

The following 30 days, a text book reversal:

Take aways from the winter version against the averages of a cat 5 hurricane 3

You can not draw it up any better. That the models did not have this amount of cold in that period:

Take aways from the winter version against the averages of a cat 5 hurricane 4

meant someone looking at past examples had an up. But there are many past examples of such things ( warming over the pole) and models can not handle it very well. Another case of why the human touch is needed.

And we want to rely on runaway models that have trouble seeing cold for planning? Good luck with that

5) Blaming the cold on global weirding

This reveals ignorance about the past and a certain arrogance that comes with not knowing what happened before and what nature can do. I have a whole chapter on this showing some examples of how “weird” the weather can be. It IS weird to people that don’t know the weather or wish to weaponize it for people that done to push an agenda, but for those that understand linkage, its simply a valuable tool to get a jump.

6) Nature, not man, rules the planet

The arrogance I see seems to be among those that are either using the weather for their own non weather purpose, or people who have not spent 40 years forecasting and how the weather teaches you the opposite. HUMILITY IN THE FACE OF NATURE. This idea that we can somehow control a system that in reality is in control of us reveals a certain kind of narcissism in my opinion that promotes the notion of elites ruling because they know better. It is one thing to think you are better than the person next to you, that is bad enough. But then to think you are smart enough to control nature and you must force people you believe you are smarter than to obey? That is the same kind of despotic behavior we have seen out of the worst tyrants. Except the current crop is moving to a different level, nature. Nature always has the last say,and using it to force people to obey your will speaks volumes as to what is driving this missive.

As I say in my book ( and I keep referencing it because it is like it was written with this in mind) it comes down to the relative truth being pushed on you vs absolute truths of natures and natures God. And perhaps that last point is the greatest point in all of this.

BTW here is a sobering thought. The price of electricity got so high, that a battery recharge for an electric vehicle would have cost close to $900.00 Talk about sticker shock.

  • Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com

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