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Forecast: The U.S. coronavirus recession has started, especially in Florida


Forecast: The U.S. coronavirus recession has started, especially in Florida

(The Center Square) – The U.S., and Florida in particular, already is in a recession and will see a nearly 20 percent decline in its gross domestic product for the fiscal quarter beginning April 1, a Massachusetts real estate data analytics firm predicts.

Cambridge-based StratoDem Analytics forecasts a Q2 national GDP drop of 18.1 percent because of coronavirus-related shutdowns between April 1-June 30 – the sharpest quarterly downturn in GDP modeling history. The firm projects the impacts of the economic fallout to be even greater in Florida.

Seven of the nation’s 10 counties most impacted already by the coronavirus recession are in Florida, according to the study. Manatee County is projected to have the nation’s worst second-quarter decline in GDP, down 28 percent.

According to StratoDem’s study, Miami-Dade County is forecast to suffer a 21.5 percent decline in economic activity next quarter, about $9 billion, with job losses totaling more than 100,00 equating to about $8,000 less spending per household.

Broward County could see a 22.7 percent decline, removing $6.1 billion from its economy between April and June, with job losses trimming $7,700 per household in spending, according to the study.

The company, which provides real estate economic and geo-demographic modeling for clients in 400 metropolitans, 3,000 counties and 70,000 census tracts nationwide, developed the forecasts using data from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley.

StratoDem released two reports March 18 documenting projected growth rates for householders between ages 25-39 and projected growth rates of senior (over 80) and middle-aged (45-64) householders between 2020-23 in a revised recession scenario.

The first of StratoDem’s two studies halves the 6.1 percent projected growth rate of age 25-39 householders with income of $50,000 to 3.2 percent, and the age 25-39 householder with $100,000 or more in income from a growth rate of 8.6 percent to 4.1 percent by 2023.

Naples is identified by StratoDem as suffering the nation’s second-worst declines in fortunes for age 25-39 householders.

Of 15 metropolitan areas nationwide with greater than 7 percent declines in projected post-recession economic mobility for age 25-34 householders, Naples, West Palm Beach and Fort Myers made the cut, StratoDem said.

In its second set of March 18 studies, StratoDem examined the “sensitivity to recessions” of householders between 45-60 and those over 80 years old.

According to StratoDem, the number of age 45-64 householders with $100,000 or more in household income was projected to increase by 5.6 percent a year through 2023, but that number is likely to increase by only 1.8 percent annually.

“Locations most negatively affected by a recession … are Las Vegas (-8.3% recession) and many small South Florida metros, such as West Palm Beach (-8.1% recession),” the report said.

All metro areas maintain a positive growth rate for senior households with $35,000 or more in income, the report said, simply because the oldest of the Baby Boomers are turning 80.

But, the reports said, the three-year growth for 80-year-old householders with incomes above $100,000 declines from a 14.6 percent average to only 11.4 percent in 2023.

On Monday, Britain-based Oxford Economics released a study commissioned by the American Hotel & Lodging Association that estimated 305,146 Florida hotel-related workers likely will lose jobs.

Other models forecast 400,000 Floridians already have lost their jobs and 2 million of the state’s 10.4 million workers are in job limbo.



* This article was originally published here



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